“Cruise Into Readiness” was the theme of the 8th annual Hurricane Party hosted by the Polk County Office of Emergency Management June 11 to hear the 2025 hurricane season forecast and review the county’s hurricane response plan.
“The first thing people ask is what category is it? That’s not what you should be asking. It tells you nothing about the rainfall, the storm surge, the chance of tornado or the heat and all of those are important,” Katie Landry-Guyton, a senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Office, said.
“There have been more U.S.-landfalling major hurricanes since 2017 than from 1963-2016,” she said, explaining that a hurricane is category one or two, but a major hurricane is three, four and five.
“Hurricanes don’t discriminate about the Gulf. Most hurricanes/tropical storms develop or rapidly intensify over the Gulf. There’s not much time between formation and landfall so you need to be prepared to accelerate timelines,” Landry-Guyton said.
As for which hazards are most deadly, she said, “The water-related hazards (storm surges and rain) cause about 90% of fatalities.”
Landry-Guyton said the ‘average’ Atlantic Hurricane Season for 1981-2010 was 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, whereas the ‘average’ for 1991-2020 was 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Reviewing the impacts of El Nino versus La Nina, she said El Nino is characterized by unusually warm waters near the equatorial Eastern Pacific and La Nina is unusually cold water in the same region and this pattern in sea surface temperatures impacts weather across the globe.
“We’re in a neutral phase, but looking to have an above-average active season,” she said, adding that the 2025 forecast reflects 13-19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
“When do you need to prepare? Yesterday? Now? Yes!” she said, emphasizing how important it is to understand forecast information. “Rely on forecasts from the National Hurricane Cetner and your local National Weather Service office. Know your alerts and the difference between a watch and a warning. Focus on potential impacts, regardless of storm size or capacity. Know that deadly hazards occur well outside of the forecast cone.”
“Is your cell phone wireless emergency warning on? If not, turn it on,” she said.
