“Our County, Our Resilience” was the theme of the 9th annual Hurricane Party hosted by the Polk County Office of Emergency Management Wednesday to hear the 2026 hurricane season forecast and review the county’s hurricane response plan.
The purpose of the event is for local government officials, emergency responders and partners, federal and state agencies, local utilities, businesses, and nonprofit organizations to gather and discuss hurricane preparedness. Attendees also network with other agencies to plan for the upcoming hurricane season and strengthen response capabilities.
“Polk County has faced many disasters and we have weathered every one of them together because of the strength and resilience of our community,” Polk County Emergency Management Coordinator Courtney Comstock said, adding that the event was also an opportunity to “honor our past, strengthen our future, and build resilience.”
Some of the more recent disasters include Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the tornado in 2020, COVID in 2020, the Crystal Lakes Subdivision washout, Winter Storm Uri in 2021, the floods in April 2024 and Hurricane Beryl in 2024.
“What powerful reminders of who we are and what we’ve been through. Polk County rises through it all,” Comstock said.
In addition to Comstock, this year’s presenters included Jimmy Fowler, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office; Dr. Walter G. Peacock of Texas A&M University College of Architecture’s Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, and Betsy Deiterman, Curator of the Polk County Memorial Museum.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Jimmy Fowler, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office
Fowler explained that a tropical depression is 38 mph and is listed by a number initially; a tropical storm is 39-74 mph and is given a name; and a hurricane is greater than 74 mph and there are five categories. He added that hurricanes are categorized just off of their wind speeds.
“Hurricanes bring many threats, including extreme wind, tornadoes, storm surge, rip currents, inland flash flooding and post-storm heat,” Fowler said, emphasizing again that that category will only tell you the extreme wind speed and nothing more.
“What goes into a hurricane season forecast?” Fowler asked.
“To form a tropical cyclone, you need: warm sea surface temperatures to feed the storm; high atmospheric moisture to build the storm; and low winds – also known as wind shear – around the storm to allow it to breathe,” he said.
“Forecasting more than a week out can be tricky, but we do have some tools to give us an idea on how active a hurricane season will be. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one factor that affects the activity level of hurricane season and we can predict months in advance,” he said.
“El Niño is characterized by unusually warm waters near the equatorial Eastern Pacific and La Niña is unusually cold waters in the same region. This pattern in sea surface temperatures impacts weather across the globe,” Fowler said.
“The forecast this year is we are quickly moving into El Niño and will more than likely see a below normal season,” Fowler said.
For the 2026 season, the probability is eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.
Even though a below normal season is predicted, Fowler emphasized that it only takes one storm, using Hurricane Alicia in 1983 as an example.
He said the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office is staffed 24/7/365 and that you may learn more about hurricane preparedness at www.weather.gov/hgx/HurricaneGuide2026.
Dr. Walter G. Peacock of Texas A&M University College of Architecture’s Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center
Peacock spoke about extending natural hazards vulnerability assessments to include social vulnerability.
“The fact basis for disaster planning is knowing your community,” Peacock said. “The pre-existing community characteristics can shape and determine the specific impacts of hazard agents such as hazard exposure, physical vulnerability and social vulnerability.
“These are largely knowable and potentially predictable. Unfortunately, they are often ignored or neglected,” he said. “And yet, they must be the basis for resiliency planning when it comes to disaster preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation planning. Indeed, they are, or should be, the basis for all comprehensive resiliency planning.”
Betsy Deiterman, Curator of the Polk County Memorial Museum
Deiterman gave an overview of the early inhabitants of eastern Texas beginning around 1520, leading up to March 2, 1836 when the Republic of Texas was born at a convention of delegates held at Washington-on-the-Brazos, then to March 6, 1836 when the Alamo fell.
“Texians panicked and fled east en masse ahead of the Mexican army. Thousands of fleeing settlers used the Coushatta Trace as an escape route. As they approached modern-day Polk County, they found the Trinity River swollen from recent rains. The Coushattas under Chief Colita assisted thousands of settlers across the Trinity and gave them food and shelter, then guided them northeast to the Alabama villages where they received additional assistance.
“This event is known as the Runaway Scrape and it is often overlooked in Texas history but it’s really important,” Deiterman said.
“Polk County was created as one of the first 23 counties in Texas in 1846, carved out of the old Mexican-controlled Liberty County. It was named for James K. Polk who was president at the time and was an advocate for Texas statehood,” she said.
Concluding, Deiterman said, “We’re all in this together. We all came here different ways, but Polk County has never been a vacuum.”
