The Lower Trinity Groundwater Conservation District (LTGCD) is a political subdivision and was created by the Texas Legislature in 2005 and approved by 68% of voters in Polk and San Jacinto Counties in 2006 to protect and manage local groundwater resources. The District is governed by a locally appointed Board of Directors representing the counties and municipalities, ensuring that groundwater decisions are made by those most familiar with the region’s needs and conditions.
The District is funded entirely through commercial permits and production fees, with no tax burden on residents. For most households served by public water systems, the cost is minimal, while private well owners incur no direct cost. This structure allows the District to operate efficiently while maintaining accountability to the communities it serves.
Texas operates under the “Rule of Capture,” which allows landowners to pump unlimited groundwater beneath their property. The District’s role is to balance those private property rights with responsible management practices to prevent waste, protect water quality, and minimize impacts between neighboring users.
Through this framework, the District works to ensure that groundwater resources remain available for residential, agricultural, and business use, both today and into the future, while maintaining local oversight and long-term sustainability.
Current water use and conditions
Over the past decade, groundwater use in the District has increased from approximately 3.3 billion gallons per year to about 4.5 billion gallons annually. Despite this growth, total use remains relatively small when compared to regional surface water movement.
This increase has been driven primarily by residential development. Commercial wells have grown from approximately 480 to 550, with about 40% of those representing replacement wells rather than new demand. Residential wells have increased from roughly 5,000 to approximately 7,400, while oil and gas activity has remained largely unchanged, with only one new well permitted in the past three years.
Polk County benefits from a unique hydrogeologic position where the Gulf Coast aquifer outcrops locally, allowing for shallower wells and more efficient recharge compared to areas farther south.
District monitoring over the past 10 years shows groundwater levels have remained generally stable, with only minor fluctuations measured in feet, even though multi-year drought conditions. When compared to the total available aquifer thickness and modeled drawdown limits, these changes are negligible and confirm that current groundwater use remains balanced and sustainable under Polk and San Jacinto counties.
Groundwater monitoring and subsidence prevention
The District is actively pursuing state grant funding to expand its monitoring network from two to nine groundwater-level monitoring wells and from one to eight subsidence monitoring stations across Polk and San Jacinto counties. This expansion will enable continuous daily monitoring of groundwater levels and land surface movement.
Data from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) confirms that areas south of the District, including Montgomery, Harris, and Fort Bend counties, have experienced significant land subsidence due to long-term groundwater overproduction, in some cases exceeding 10 feet. Locally, the Livingston area experienced minor subsidence over several decades, ~1ft which has stabilized following the city’s transition to surface water use.
Desired future conditions (DFC) and long-term outlook
Groundwater planning in Texas is conducted through a five-year process within Groundwater Management Area 14 (GMA 14). Through this process, the District establishes long-term sustainability targets that are used by the Texas Water Development Board to determine Maximum Available Groundwater (MAG) through a 50-year planning horizon.
The District is currently completing the fourth round of DFC planning, with updated MAG values expected this year to guide groundwater availability through approximately 2080. Historically, the District has maintained a strong position, typically using less than 30% of its available groundwater.
Regional growth and water demand
Regional trends show a sharp contrast in future water demand. Montgomery County has grown from approximately 450,000 residents to currently over 750,000 and is projected to exceed 1.4 million by 2080, significantly increasing groundwater demand. Harris County continues to grow to an estimated 6 million, and Texas overall is projected to reach approximately 45 million residents by 2080.
In contrast, Polk and San Jacinto counties have experienced modest growth and are projected to remain under approximately 90,000 combined residents by 2080. This stability has allowed groundwater use in the District to remain consistent and sustainable. But these trends highlight a growing regional and state imbalance, where rapidly growing urban areas are driving increased demand while rural areas like East Texas maintain stable use patterns with excess unused water resources.
Key takeaway
The LTGCD District remains in a strong and stable position. Groundwater resources are sufficient, current use is sustainable, and monitoring is being expanded proactively to protect against long-term risks.
However, as population growth, economic expansion, and emerging high-demand industries such as data centers and energy infrastructure continue to increase water demand across Texas, groundwater in East Texas will become an increasingly valuable and strategic resource. While there is no immediate cause for concern, the broader trend is clear. Over the next one to two legislative sessions, the state is expected to continue evaluating water policy in response to these pressures. This may include increased focus on regionalization, inter-basin transfers, or a shift toward more centralized or statewide water management approaches in place of the current locally controlled framework.
It will be important for the District to remain aware, actively engaged, and prepared to respond to these developments to ensure that local groundwater resources are protected and that decision-making authority remains aligned with the needs of the communities the District serves.
