Travis Herzog, chief meteorologist for ABC 13/KTRK-TV in Houston, the guest speaker for the Polk County Chamber of Commerce’s quarterly membership luncheon Monday, provided an informative program on the 2026 hurricane season.
Asking for a show of hands of who remembered Hurricane Gilbert, Herzog said he was just a young boy living in San Antonio in 1988 when remnants from the category five hurricane went across San Antonio, spawning a number of tornadoes that he saw firsthand that scared him tremendously.
“That’s what got me interested in the weather. My interest led to my passion which led to my calling to be a meteorologist. After that experience, I started reading all the weather books instead of watching Saturday morning cartoons,” he said, adding that he just recently celebrated 20 years at ABC 13.
Interacting with the crowd in attendance, Herzog offered up a “pop quiz,” asking the following questions: What is the deadliest hurricane in the U.S.? (the 1900 Galveston hurricane); What is the wettest hurricane in the U.S.? (Hurricane Harvey in 2017); What is the wettest tropical storm in the U.S.? (Tropical Storm Allison in 2001); What is the costliest hurricane in the U.S.? (Hurricane Katrina in 2005); and What is the costliest tropical storm in the U.S.? (Tropical Storm Allison in 2001).
“Notice they’re all in Southeast Texas,” he pointed out.
“A five-day forecast today is as accurate as a one-day forecast in the 80s,” Herzog said, commenting on the advances that have been made since hurricane-spawned tornadoes frightened him as a young boy.
As for the 2026 hurricane season which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted eight to 14 tropical storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.
“The numbers are down this year, much lower than we’ve seen the last few years,” he said, adding that the numbers will be refined in August.
El Niño, La Niña, or La Nada?
“Why are the numbers down? Because of what’s happening in the water,” he said.
“El Niño is the warm water located along the equator over the Pacific Ocean. We have had zero hurricanes in Texas during El Niño since 1950 because it usually makes them weaker. La Niña is the opposite. It’s when the water is cold, and we’ve had four in Texas since 1950,” Herzog said.
“Then there’s what I jokingly call La Nada, neither warm nor cold, and we’ve had 15 since 1950, including big storms like Carla and Alicia. We don’t like it when we’re in La Nada,” he said, adding, “August and September is when we’re usually hit the worst in Texas.
“We average about once a decade. We’ve never had a category five hit the Texas coastline and I hope to keep it that way. Where you are makes all the difference. And that’s our job as meteorologists. We try to determine how is this one going to be different? Because no two are the same,” Herzog said, adding, “I think we’re going to have a pretty wet fall.”
Asked about Saharan Dust, Herzog said it normally limits hurricane development. “When it comes through in June and July it keeps things pretty quiet.
“We’ve seen a massive increase in rapidly forming storms since Hurricane Harvey in 2017; and changes in water temps, specifically warm waters in the Gulf, are one of the things causing the noticeable uptick,” he said.
So what do I do?
“Run from the water, hide from the wind,” he said. “One foot of water moving at 10 mph pushes with the same force as 287 mph winds.
“Prepare now. Know your risk. Develop an evacuation and/or ‘hunker down’ plan. Gather supplies. Make your home and property ‘hurricane strong.’ Get insurance,” he said.
“Stay intentionally aware. Seek out information from a reputable, trusted source with a proven track record. Be ready to act. When a storm threatens, put your plan into action and continue to stay well-informed. Listen to your local emergency managers,” Herzog said.
