The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly approaching, and according to forecasters, a strong El Nino effect will likely suppress hurricane activity.
Hurricane season will begin June 1 and last through Nov. 30, with the busiest part of the hurricane season being the months August through October. Forecasters have demonstrated through modeling that El Nino can bring a wetter-than-average fall and winter season, with a 100% chance of a strong El Nino developing by November.
The El Nino climate pattern, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is characterized by the warming of the ocean surface temperatures, where trade winds are weakened and conditions in the southern part of the United States are typically wetter, but weather in the north is warmer and drier.
The NOAA will issue its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season during a news conference on Thursday, May 21, from its NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, but the agency stresses preparedness ahead of June 1.
“Be ready for hurricane season. Take action TODAY to be better prepared for when the worst happens,” a news release from NOAA stated, with last week marked as “National Hurricane Preparedness Week.”
Reports from meteorologists from Colorado State University have stressed a high level of uncertainty and have predicted fewer storms than average this year. CSU researchers are predicting 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major (category 3 or higher) storms.
“We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” CSU researchers wrote. “We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Another major report on hurricanes seems to contradict the CSU report, slightly. Kyle Davis and Xubin Zeng of the University of Arizona, published in April, that they predict “above average” activities for the season, with 20 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
“The big story with this season will be the possibility of a very strong El Nino,” the report states, adding that the high surface sea temperatures (SSTs) are similarly high to the year 2023, according to the model used.
For the Texas Gulf Coast, that modelling indicates a 20% probability of a major hurricane making landfall, which is actually down from the average of 27% recorded from 1880 to 2020. That percentage, using Davis and Zeng’s model is higher for the entire U.S. coastline, at 32%.
Other forecasters have called for a below-average season, with the Weather Channel reporting in April 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes due to the El Nino predictions.
